Why Brisbane's Property Market Keeps Growing
Development
KPMG Australia's August 2026 outlook points to the same structural story behind Brisbane's resilience: strong demand and not enough homes to meet it.
KPMG Australia's latest Residential Property Market Outlook is a useful reality check on where the housing market actually stands, and for Brisbane, the picture holds up well. While the national market has hit a short-term speed bump, KPMG expects Brisbane house prices to keep growing through 2026 and into 2027, with units growing even faster, backed by the same structural shortage that has underpinned the city's run over recent years.
Brisbane keeps growing
KPMG forecasts Brisbane houses to rise 4.6% to December 2026 and a further 3.6% to December 2027, with units up 7.3% and then 4.0%, putting it among the stronger performers nationally this year. KPMG's explanation is a genuine supply gap: "a structural housing shortage is expected to provide a firm floor under prices, limiting the depth of any correction". Brisbane is also one of the mid-sized capitals where "availability continues to be most limited," with rental vacancy rates "below 1%", a sign of just how much demand is chasing too few homes.
Supply is the tailwind, not the headwind
The reason KPMG keeps landing on a firm floor for prices is structural, not cyclical. Australia is forecast to deliver "net new dwelling supply of around 160,000 dwellings in FY26 and FY27," well short of the National Housing Accord's target of 1.2 million homes by mid-2029. KPMG estimates the national shortfall at 24,000 dwellings in FY26, narrowing to 17,000 in FY27. For owners and long-term investors, that persistent gap between how many homes people need and how many are being built is exactly the kind of fundamental that keeps values supported through a soft patch.
The national correction looks short-lived
KPMG isn't forecasting a downturn that sticks around. Its model points to a "V-shaped path over the next two years, with a correction in 2026 followed by a gradual recovery in 2027", with national house prices expected to return to growth of 3.4% in 2027 after a modest 1.1% dip this year. The dip itself traces to a specific, largely one-off combination of factors: three consecutive cash rate rises, an inflation scare tied to the Iran conflict, and softer investor sentiment following changes to capital gains and negative gearing in the 2026–27 Federal Budget. None of these change the underlying demand story.
Units are capturing extra demand
KPMG expects apartments to outperform houses in most markets over the next two years: "unit markets are expected to outperform detached housing... supported by stronger affordability, higher rental yields and ongoing demand for lower-cost housing options". Brisbane's own unit forecast, 7.3% to December 2026, reflects that trend clearly. Tight rental markets are reinforcing it too, with Cotality data showing "around 33% of a household's median income was paid towards rent in March 2026, compared to around 27% in March 2021", keeping pressure on renters to buy where they can.
Our take
The headline noise this year has been about a national correction, but KPMG's own numbers tell a steadier story for Brisbane: population growth, a persistent supply shortfall and resilient rental demand are still doing more work than short-term sentiment is undoing. KPMG does note that sentiment can outlast fundamentals if rates stay higher for longer, so it's worth reading the full report rather than relying on headlines alone. This is general commentary, not financial advice. Read the full report at KPMG.com.au and speak to a qualified adviser before making a decision.
Source: KPMG Australia, Residential Property Market Outlook, August 2026, authored by Dr Brendan Rynne and Dr Brian Tran, KPMG Economics. Page references noted above. KPMG's report states it "is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity" (p.18). Sherpa Group is not affiliated with KPMG; this article is not financial, legal or investment advice.
